Why Kwankwaso May Not Support Tinubu In 2027 – Galadima

Ahead of the 2027 presidential election, the political atmosphere in Kano is already generating intense debate, particularly around the possible alliances of Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, the former governor of Kano State and leader of the red-capped Kwankwasiyya movement. Kwankwaso, who commands a cult-like following in the North, remains a pivotal figure in Nigeria’s political chessboard.

Buba Galadima, a chieftain of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP), has ruled out the possibility of Kwankwaso aligning with President Bola Tinubu and the All Progressives Congress (APC) for the next general election. Speaking on Channels Television’s Politics Today on Monday, Galadima accused the Tinubu administration of undermining Kwankwaso and the NNPP in Kano by backing the ousted Emir of Kano, Aminu Ado Bayero.

According to Galadima, the Federal Government’s interference in the Kano emirate crisis has deeply strained relations between the APC and Kwankwaso’s political camp. “How can Kwankwaso be a friend of the APC with what they are doing to us in Kano? Appointing two emirs in one town? They have their emirs and their police, while people are being killed in localities,” he said.

The Emirate Crisis and Its Political Fallout

The battle for the Kano Emirate has been at the heart of political rivalry in the state. In May 2024, Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf of the NNPP reinstated Muhammadu Sanusi II as Emir of Kano, four years after he was dethroned by the APC-led government of Abdullahi Ganduje. The decision sparked a dramatic confrontation, as the Federal Government threw its weight behind Aminu Ado Bayero, leading to a situation where two emirs laid claim to the throne.

Security agencies have since maintained heavy protection around Emir Bayero, despite his removal, a move Galadima described as “a deliberate attempt by the Tinubu government to destabilise Kano.” He further argued that chieftaincy disputes fall outside the jurisdiction of the federal high courts, suggesting undue federal interference.

The NNPP leader insisted that the Federal Government is holding onto Emir Bayero for political advantage ahead of 2027, but dismissed the idea that traditional rulers in Kano could swing presidential elections. “No Kano emir has ever determined the victory of a Nigerian president,” Galadima stressed, adding that Kwankwaso remains the most influential political force in the state.

Kwankwaso And NNPP’s Ambition for 2027

Galadima was emphatic about NNPP’s role in shaping Nigeria’s political future. He declared that the party would be the kingmaker in the 2027 presidential race. “We are the people who will determine who will be the President of Nigeria in 2027,” he said.

Rejecting claims that Kwankwaso may be in talks with the APC, Galadima said, “Let anybody come out and tell me that he met Kwankwaso and persuaded him to join the APC. If that ever happened, I would know.” He described Kwankwaso as “the strongest political Iroko in Nigeria today” for defeating the APC in Kano despite the ruling party’s incumbency advantage.

The statement underscores NNPP’s determination not to be a fringe party in the next election cycle. With Kwankwaso’s rising profile and the party’s hold on Kano State through Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf, the NNPP is positioning itself as a formidable force in 2027.

The Battle for Kano Votes

Kano remains a prized political battleground in Nigeria’s democracy. Since 1999, the state has consistently recorded some of the highest voter turnouts during presidential elections. In 2023, Kano alone produced nearly 1.7 million votes, making it indispensable for any candidate seeking victory.

In that election, Kwankwaso polled 997,279 votes in Kano, defeating APC’s Bola Tinubu who secured 517,341, and Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) who garnered 131,716 votes. Despite this dominance in Kano, Kwankwaso’s nationwide performance fell short, as he finished fourth with a total of 1,496,687 votes.

Nevertheless, his grip on 38 out of 44 local government areas in Kano demonstrates his unmatched political structure in the state. As 2027 approaches, political parties are expected to intensify their courtship of the NNPP and its leader, knowing that winning Kano could prove decisive in the overall electoral outcome.

Outlook for 2027

The deepening rift between the APC-led Federal Government and the NNPP over Kano’s emirate crisis signals that an alliance between Tinubu and Kwankwaso may be unlikely. Galadima’s comments highlight the mistrust between both camps and suggest that the battle for Kano’s loyalty will remain fierce.

For now, the NNPP is focused on consolidating its influence in Kano and beyond, while Tinubu faces the challenge of reconciling with northern power blocs if he is to secure re-election. As history has shown, Kano’s political weight cannot be underestimated, and Kwankwaso’s next moves will be keenly watched by both allies and opponents ahead of the 2027 polls.