Nigeria’s Fuel Imports Drop to Eight-Year Low as Dangote Refinery Ramps Up Production

Nigeria's Fuel Imports Drop to Eight-Year Low as Dangote Refinery Ramps Up Production

Nigeria’s fuel imports have plummeted to their lowest level in almost a decade, driven by the increasing production capacity of the Dangote Refinery. This shift is reshaping the country’s energy landscape and significantly impacting global fuel trade dynamics.

Nigeria’s Fuel Imports at Lowest Levels Since 2017

Nigeria’s gasoline imports have reached an eight-year low, with shipments averaging about 110,000 barrels per day (bpd) between January 1 and 24, 2025, according to data from analytics firm Vortexa Ltd., as reported by Bloomberg. This marks a significant decline from previous years when imports ranged between 200,000 and 400,000 bpd.

The sharp reduction in fuel imports is largely attributed to the operational impact of the Dangote Refinery, which has begun disrupting global oil supply chains. The refinery, which has the largest refining capacity in Africa and Europe, is gradually reducing Nigeria’s dependence on imported fuel. Samantha Hartke, an analyst at Vortexa, noted that the refinery’s growing output is forcing suppliers in Northwest Europe to find alternative markets for their gasoline.

Dangote Refinery’s Production Expansion Reshaping Global Fuel Trade

Even though the refinery is yet to reach its full production capacity, its growing output is already reshaping the global fuel trade. Stockpiles of gasoline in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub—a major supplier of fuel to Nigeria—have reportedly surged to record highs, according to data from Insights Global. This buildup is a direct consequence of Nigeria’s reduced reliance on European imports.

With the refinery’s continued expansion, more disruptions are expected in the global fuel market, particularly for European refiners that previously depended on Nigeria as a key export destination. The shift underscores Nigeria’s growing energy independence and the potential for the country to become a net exporter of refined petroleum products.

Dangote Refinery Prepares to Receive 12 Million Barrels of U.S. Crude

To meet its full refining capacity of 650,000 bpd by the end of the first quarter of 2025, the Dangote Refinery is ramping up crude storage infrastructure. The company is currently constructing additional storage tanks capable of holding 6.3 million barrels of crude oil, according to a report by Africa Report.

In a strategic move to sustain its operations, the refinery is set to receive a shipment of 12 million barrels of crude oil from the United States. The shipment has already left the U.S. and is expected to arrive in Nigeria next month. This highlights the refinery’s reliance on imported crude to bridge local supply gaps, ensuring stable production levels in the short term.

Nigeria’s Fuel Market Transformation and Export Prospects

The Dangote Refinery’s impact extends beyond reducing Nigeria’s fuel imports. The refinery has begun exporting refined petroleum products, including Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), to several African countries such as Ghana, Togo, Cameroon, South Africa, and Angola. Additionally, some exports are reportedly making their way to Europe, further altering the global fuel trade landscape.

Despite initial challenges in securing local crude supplies, the refinery’s growing capacity is positioning Nigeria as a significant player in the global downstream petroleum sector. With continued expansion and strategic crude sourcing, Nigeria could transition from a net importer to a net exporter of refined petroleum products, enhancing its economic prospects and energy security.


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