Nigeria’s Economy Expands to ₦441.5 Trillion as Q4 Growth Hits 4.07%

Nigeria’s economy recorded a 4.07 per cent growth in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to new data released by the National Bureau of Statistics. The figure has been welcomed by the Federal Ministry of Finance as a sign of strengthening macroeconomic stability and reform-driven expansion under the administration of Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, described the performance as a reflection of sustained policy coordination and structural reforms. The fourth-quarter result represents the second time in a decade—excluding the immediate post-pandemic rebound—that quarterly growth has exceeded four per cent.

Broad-Based Sectoral Expansion

Economic growth in the fourth quarter was recorded across the three major sectors: agriculture, industry, and services, indicating a broad-based expansion rather than isolated gains.

Agriculture grew by 4.0 per cent, a notable increase from 2.54 per cent recorded in the same period of 2024. According to the Ministry, improved security in food-producing regions and better access to farming inputs contributed to the stronger performance. The sector’s expansion is seen as critical to food supply stability and inflation management.

The industrial sector expanded by 3.88 per cent, up from 2.49 per cent in the corresponding quarter of the previous year. The growth was attributed to improved foreign exchange liquidity, reforms in the energy sector, and rising investor confidence. Meanwhile, services led overall expansion with 4.15 per cent growth, driven by sustained activity in finance, telecommunications, trade, and technology-related services.

Data from the statistics bureau show that approximately 30 subsectors recorded growth above three per cent, underscoring increasing diversification within the economy.

Stronger Full-Year Performance on the Economy

For the full year 2025, Nigeria’s real GDP grew by 3.87 per cent, compared with 3.38 per cent in 2024. The overall size of the economy rose to ₦441.5 trillion, up from ₦372.8 trillion the previous year.

The Ministry of Finance attributed the improved annual performance to enhanced fiscal coordination, disciplined expenditure management, stronger revenue mobilisation, and the continuation of structural reforms designed to restore macroeconomic credibility.

Officials say the data reinforces confidence among domestic and international investors, signalling that reform measures are beginning to yield measurable outcomes. The Ministry reaffirmed its commitment to sustained reform implementation, institutional coordination, and transparent engagement with stakeholders to consolidate the gains.

Outlook and Policy Implications

Analysts note that maintaining growth above four per cent on a consistent basis will require sustained policy discipline, infrastructure investment, and continued efforts to stabilise prices and exchange rates.

The Ministry emphasised that reform efforts will remain focused on improving the investment climate, strengthening institutions, and expanding opportunities across productive sectors of the economy. While challenges persist, the latest data suggest that the economy is on a firmer growth path than in recent years.