Hakeem Baba-Ahmed Cautions Tinubu Against Dropping Shettima in 2027- “Don’t Underrate Northern Sentiment”

Hakeem Baba-Ahmed has raised alarms over a possible shift in the religious and regional dynamics of Nigeria’s political top brass ahead of 2027. Speaking on the sensitive matter, Baba-Ahmed cautioned that any move by President Bola Tinubu to replace Vice President Kashim Shettima—a Muslim from the Northeast—with a non-Muslim from the North Central could agitate the already delicate sentiments of the Muslim majority in the North.

He emphasized that while political realignments are not uncommon, the religious configuration at the presidency carries heavy symbolic weight in Nigeria’s sociopolitical fabric. “Once you signal to Muslims in the North that their representation has been reduced, or worse, sacrificed, you risk deepening divisions and dampening enthusiasm among your voter base,” Baba-Ahmed warned.

Northwest: A Region Politically Spent or Politically Risky?

Delving into the regional implications, Baba-Ahmed dismissed the possibility of selecting a new vice-presidential candidate from the Northwest. “The Northwest is already fatigued politically,” he explained. “Buhari’s eight-year tenure has oversaturated expectations there. Another pick from that region may be viewed as a regressive political gamble.”

He also warned that a return to the Northwest might trigger inter-zonal resentment. “There’s a danger in recycling power within one sub-region. Tinubu would be perceived as ignoring equitable distribution of power, and that’s a dangerous perception to carry into a tight election year like 2027,” he noted.

Kano: A Tempting Battleground with Hidden Landmines

Baba-Ahmed acknowledged Kano as a possible pivot point for the ruling APC, but underscored the limitations of its appeal. “Kano is tempting,” he said. “But let’s not forget—APC only edged NNPC by about 500,000 votes in 2023. In a state with Kano’s population, that margin is too narrow to be considered a political cushion.”

He argued that while Kano holds significant electoral weight, it is also volatile. “What’s the strategic advantage of courting Kano with a VP slot if you lose the trust of an entire religious bloc in the Northeast? The backlash may outweigh the gains,” he warned pointedly.

North Central Dilemma: Religious Optics vs Electoral Strategy

Tinubu’s rumored interest in a North Central running mate—particularly a non-Muslim—has stirred debate. Baba-Ahmed sees it as a double-edged sword. “If he does this for diversity optics, he may alienate the conservative Muslim base. If he doesn’t, he risks appearing inflexible and disconnected from the changing political climate.”

He further explained that the North Central has always been a swing zone, and picking a candidate from there might offer tactical value. However, “choosing a Christian in a Muslim-majority alliance sends a powerful signal that may be read more as betrayal than inclusion,” Baba-Ahmed emphasized.

Internal Party Fractures: Can the APC Withstand Religious Realignment?

Hakeem Baba-Ahmed pointed out the ideological fragmentation already visible within the All Progressives Congress (APC). According to him, introducing religious tension through a controversial VP switch may strain the party’s fault lines even further. “You’re not just picking a name; you’re rewriting the political narrative your party stands on.”

He added that if Tinubu proceeds without carefully building consensus, the ripple effect could be catastrophic. “From governors to grassroots mobilizers, the Muslim North may not take kindly to being sidelined. APC could splinter under the weight of its own internal contradictions,” he said.

2027: A Test of Political Arithmetic or Religious Symbolism?

Baba-Ahmed concluded that the road to 2027 would demand more than clever calculations. “This isn’t just about vote-banking. It’s about perception, loyalty, and trust,” he said. He insisted that Nigeria’s political terrain is too emotionally charged to gamble with symbols that bind coalitions together.

He urged President Tinubu to weigh every regional and religious implication before making any decision. “One wrong signal,” he warned, “and the president may find himself walking into 2027 with a fractured base and a united opposition.”