APC, Presidency Dismisses El-Rufai’s Defection to SDP as No Threat to Tinubu’s 2027 Re-Election

Former Kaduna State Governor, Nasir El-Rufai’s, on Monday, announced his departure from the All Progressives Congress (APC) and joined the opposition Social Democratic Party (SDP), setting the stage for a major political realignment ahead of the 2027 general election.

El-Rufai, who played a crucial role in the formation and victories of the APC in 2015, 2019, and 2023, cited irreconcilable differences with the party’s leadership as the primary reason for his defection. In a strongly worded statement, he accused the ruling party of straying from its progressive principles and failing to address internal grievances.

Declaring his mission in the SDP, El-Rufai vowed to unite opposition forces to challenge the APC in the upcoming elections. “I will focus on engaging with and persuading other opposition leaders and parties to join us and congregate under a unified democratic platform to challenge the APC in all elections and by-elections,” he stated. His defection, seen as a significant political development, has drawn mixed reactions from political stakeholders.

Presidency and APC Dismiss El-Rufai’s Move

In response to El-Rufai’s defection, the Presidency and the ruling APC swiftly dismissed his move, downplaying its significance and questioning his political influence. Presidential adviser Daniel Bwala argued that El-Rufai’s decision was not rooted in ideological change but was rather an act of political desperation.

Bwala, in a statement on his verified X handle, criticized El-Rufai for aligning with opposition figures, calling it an “inordinate ambition that is destined to fail.” He stated, “We would intellectually remind you that associating with sore losers to unseat the incumbent is not an ideology, neither is it progressivism.”

The Kaduna State chapter of the APC also responded, labeling El-Rufai’s defection as “political gyration” with little impact. The party’s secretary, Yahaya Baba-Pate, expressed confidence that APC would retain control in Kaduna and secure victories for both President Bola Tinubu and Governor Uba Sani in 2027. “Our party is growing stronger every day, and we are unbothered by El-Rufai’s exit,” Baba-Pate said.

El-Rufai’s Growing Opposition Alliances

El-Rufai’s defection comes after months of speculation about his dissatisfaction with the APC and his interactions with opposition leaders. He has been seen engaging with prominent figures such as former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and former Ekiti State Governor Kayode Fayemi.

At a democracy-focused conference in January, El-Rufai openly called for opposition unity against the APC. He also held a series of high-profile meetings, including a visit to the SDP’s national chairman, Musa Garbam, and the Kaduna State chapter of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). His recent meetings with Atiku Abubakar and other opposition figures, including former Minister of Interior Rauf Aregbesola and Pastor Tunde Bakare, further fueled speculation about his broader political ambitions.

El-Rufai’s actions suggest he is positioning himself as a central figure in an opposition coalition that aims to challenge the APC’s dominance in 2027. However, whether he can successfully galvanize a broad opposition front remains uncertain.

Shehu Sani, Lukman Weigh in on El-Rufai’s Decision

Former Kaduna Central Senator, Shehu Sani, dismissed El-Rufai’s defection, stating that it would not significantly alter the state’s political dynamics. “Leaving APC for SDP wouldn’t make any difference for someone with no political relevance again,” Sani said, predicting that Tinubu and Governor Uba Sani would secure re-election in 2027.

Similarly, former APC National Vice Chairman (North-West) Salihu Lukman described El-Rufai’s defection as premature. Lukman, who is involved in discussions about forming a mega opposition coalition, suggested that El-Rufai’s move was not in sync with broader strategic plans. “I expected that he should have been a bit patient for us to walk out as a group,” Lukman said. However, he hinted that discussions were ongoing, and if the SDP met certain conditions, others might follow El-Rufai’s lead.

Implications for 2027 and the Future of APC

El-Rufai’s departure from the APC raises questions about internal divisions within the ruling party and its ability to maintain unity ahead of the 2027 elections. While the APC remains confident in its dominance, the formation of a strong opposition alliance could pose a challenge to its electoral prospects.

The Pat Utomi-led National Consultative Front welcomed El-Rufai’s move, calling him a key figure in the opposition’s plans. However, the PDP dismissed his defection as a mistake, signaling uncertainty over whether he will be fully embraced by the broader opposition.

With growing dissatisfaction among some APC members and the potential for further defections, the coming months will determine whether El-Rufai move marks the beginning of a significant political shift or remains an isolated event. Either way, his defection has set the stage for an intense political battle ahead of the 2027 elections.