ADC May Fracture If Atiku Clinches 2027 Ticket, Baba-Ahmed Warns

Former presidential adviser, Hakeem Baba-Ahmed, has cautioned that the African Democratic Congress (ADC) risks internal disintegration if former Vice President Atiku Abubakar emerges as the party’s presidential candidate for the 2027 general election. Speaking during a televised interview, Baba-Ahmed argued that the party’s current coalition of ambitious political actors could unravel once the contest for its presidential ticket reaches a decisive stage.

According to him, the ADC is gradually becoming a convergence point for several heavyweight politicians with overlapping ambitions, a reality that may test the party’s cohesion. He maintained that while Atiku appears well-positioned within the party’s structure, his eventual victory at a national convention could provoke dissatisfaction and defections among other aspirants and their supporters.

Atiku’s Strong Position Within the ADC

Baba-Ahmed stated that Atiku Abubakar’s influence and political experience place him in a favourable position ahead of any ADC national convention. He argued that the former vice president has the organisational depth and strategic advantage required to secure the party’s ticket if the process is opened to a competitive convention.

He further suggested that the push for a convention itself aligns with Atiku’s strengths, noting that such a process would likely tilt the balance in his favour. In his view, the expectation of Atiku’s victory is already shaping calculations within the party, even before formal procedures commence.

However, Baba-Ahmed warned that this perceived inevitability could deepen internal tensions. He observed that many prominent figures currently within the ADC are united less by ideology than by shared presidential ambition, a factor that could make post-convention reconciliation difficult.

Clashing Ambitions and the Risk of Defections

The former adviser emphasised that the ADC is hosting several high-profile politicians whose interests may not coexist peacefully once the race for the ticket intensifies. He argued that the party’s expanding profile has attracted aspirants who see the ADC as a viable platform for national power, rather than as a long-term political home.

According to Baba-Ahmed, once the convention produces a single flagbearer, those who feel sidelined are unlikely to remain. He predicted that an Atiku victory would accelerate this process, leading to an exodus of aggrieved members who believe their ambitions have been blocked.

He described the situation as a familiar pattern in Nigerian party politics, where coalitions formed around electoral opportunity often struggle to survive the internal competition that follows. In this context, he said, the ADC may “bleed” after its convention if expectations are not carefully managed.

Peter Obi and the Question of Party Primaries

Baba-Ahmed also commented on the posture of former Anambra State governor, Peter Obi, within the broader opposition landscape. He suggested that Obi’s political style is more aligned with consensus arrangements than with fiercely contested party primaries involving multiple aspirants.

He noted that Obi’s supporters initially encouraged him with assurances of broad acceptance, but that the reality within the ADC may be different. As more aspirants assert their ambitions, Baba-Ahmed argued that Obi could face pressure to submit to a competitive process rather than rely on informal adoption.

In his assessment, this mismatch of expectations could further strain the party. Baba-Ahmed concluded that unless the ADC finds a way to balance ambition with internal cohesion, the outcome of its convention could destabilise the coalition that currently sustains it.